Norwich City and slow starts. It has become a regular occurrence since their return to the Championship in 2022.
In that first season back in the second tier, they failed to win any of their opening three matches, losing two. Under Johannes Hoff Thorup, they won just one of their first five games. Last season’s collapse under Liam Manning needs no retelling.
The exception came under David Wagner in 2023/24, when City won four of their opening six games. Otherwise, supporters have become accustomed to a sense that the campaign is slipping away before it has properly begun.
Yet early Championship tables are often snapshots of variance, fixture lists and unfinished squads rather than reliable forecasts. Twelve months ago, Middlesbrough and West Brom occupied the top two, Ipswich were still waiting for a win, and Norwich sat 11th with two victories from four. By May, none of it looked quite so meaningful.
That does not make Norwich’s current return of three points irrelevant. It does, however, make it premature to treat four matches as a verdict on Philippe Clement’s side.
Football is driven by emotion. Every win can feel seismic while every defeat can make a crisis seem close at hand. Conversations about coaches under pressure and players being written off will already be taking place across the country.
That is part of why we love it. It matters. People care. But Norwich’s slow start is not yet a crisis. It does not mean they are condemned to another painful campaign of mediocrity, and it does not mean the squad isn't capable of producing success.
Equally, it does not mean this is 2018/19, when Daniel Farke’s side won only one of their opening six matches, including a bruising 3-0 defeat against Leeds United, before romping to the Championship title.
But given the slow starts in the past, it is understandable that there is some anxiety and concern about the opening four matches, especially when so much of the summer was spent discussing the need to stride out from the blocks. Everyone of a yellow and green persuasion shudders at the prospect of another season beginning with Norwich already chasing lost ground.
The comparison with last season actually makes the difference clearest.
Manning's Norwich showed signs of what was to come. In games against Coventry, Portsmouth, Blackburn and Stoke, they were on the ropes and having to withstand significant pressure, yet extracted points from all of them.
It wasn't sustainable, and soon results aligned with performances, leaving City rooted in the relegation zone on nine points and in need of saving.
Compare that to the opening four matches this time around. They were on the wrong end of a significant refereeing call at West Brom, but still played well enough to feel they should have taken something from the game. Nobody would argue they were anything other than rank at Millwall. Burnley was a masterclass in transition. Stoke, while frustrating, saw them control vast periods of the game and struggle to break down a low defensive block.
It is not perfect. No side has fully found its rhythm after four matches, but there is enough substance in Norwich’s performances and underlying numbers to suggest they deserve more than the three points they have on the board.
Opta’s expected-points model, which estimates a team’s likely return from the quality of chances created and conceded, ranks Norwich seventh after four matches, despite their actual return of three points.
The sample needs to grow before firm conclusions can be drawn. The question is whether City can make results rise to meet performances before those performances fall to the level of the results.
For all the frustration around the Stoke defeat, and broader concerns about their ability to break down a low block, Andre Brooks squandered two excellent opportunities, and Norwich consistently worked the ball into positive areas. It was more about off-key decision-making and connections in the final third.
They effectively didn't get going last season until November. That is not something anyone wants to repeat, but it shows that nothing is won or lost in the first weeks of the campaign.
It is also worth adding that, despite his brilliant transformation at Carrow Road, Clement won just one of his opening five matches in charge.
He has shown he can build a side capable of winning consistently at this level, largely with the same core of players. These opening weeks are about building fitness, robustness and rhythm - qualities few teams in the division fully possess at this stage.
It remains too early to know the true strength of Norwich’s opponents over a 46-game campaign. That is why the focus must remain on City's own performances and the elements within their control.
Clement’s next task is to turn control into chances, chances into goals and a familiar slow start into a short-lived irritation rather than another season-defining problem.
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