Connor Southwell: Norwich cannot downplay play-off challenge

Much has been said about the scale of the turnaround that David Wagner has led. That is perhaps encapsulated by the fact they currently sit fifth in the Championship table - that was unthinkable at the turn of the year. 

Now, attentions are being turned to the play-offs, even if there is a slight trepidation from those travelling to St Andrew's about the eight-goal cushion they are looking to protect this afternoon.  

It will likely be either Russell Martin's Southampton or Daniel Farke's Leeds, unless Ipswich fail to beat virtually relegated Huddersfield at Portman Road, for City over two legs. The narratives write themselves whoever is thrown up. 

Martin was a play-off winning captain. Farke a twice title-winning head coach. Both with deep connections to Carrow Road. 

It's been a frenetic and chaotic top-six race. No side between third and sixth has recorded a victory in their last two games.

Leeds have won one of their last five, Southampton have lost three on the spin, Norwich have drawn three of their last four and West Brom are on a run of three defeats. Even Hull in seventh have won twice in five. Eighth-placed Middlesbrough have the same record. 

Farke's side were beaten 4-0 by QPR last Friday. Saints lost by five to newly-crowned champions Leicester. West Brom lost 3-0 against Danny Rohl's resurgent Owls in their quest for survival. 

Some of the most in-form sides in the Championship sit in the bottom half. Millwall, Swansea, Bristol City and Sheffield Wednesday stand out in a league that is limping to a conclusion. 

That has created a growing narrative that is gaining traction - that the lack of momentum will play a major role when the play-offs kick off. 

That view is dispelled by looking at Wagner's previous triumph in the play-offs with Huddersfield and one that the City boss dismissed at his pre-match press conference on Thursday afternoon. 

His Huddersfield team finished fifth, had a negative goal difference and were promoted without scoring a goal in their run to the Premier League. Their only goal was netted by Sheffield Wednesday defender Tom Lees in their 1-1 second leg draw at Hillsborough. 

Wagner's Terriers won both games on penalties. But more interestingly, they headed into the play-offs having lost three of their final matches and winning just three of their last ten. 

Within their run to the play-offs, Huddersfield were beaten 4-0 away at Bristol City, 4-1 at home to Fulham and failed to score in 2-0 and 3-0 defeats to Birmingham and Cardiff in their final two matches. 

David Wagner won the play-offs with Huddersfield Town in 2017. (Image: PA Images)

They did not have momentum, but they won the play-offs. Does it matter? Using that example, it would appear that it does not. Luton and Nottingham Forest did go on sustained runs to gain promotion in recent years. 

There are a series of urban myths around the play-offs that are perpetuated around this time of year. 

One of them is that sides that finish third and just miss out on automatic promotion struggle to deal with that disappointment. The stats paint a different position - 38 out of 99 finals across all three divisions (38.3pc) have been won by the side which occupied the highest play-off spot at the end of the regular season. 

Perhaps comparable to this current Championship race is the one that occurred in League One last season. Plymouth, Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday all finished above 90 points, the Owls won the play-offs despite a rocky conclusion to their campaign. 

Of the other 61 finals, 20 (20.2pc of the total 99) have been won by the team ranking fourth or fifth in the play-off positions – meaning that teams who have finished in the final play-off spot have a fractionally better success rate (21.2pc) across the three EFL divisions. 

But that doesn't really apply to the Championship, Ian Holloway's Blackpool of 2009/10 were the last side who finished there before coming through the campaign.

Daniel Farke's Leeds have stumbled in recent weeks. (Image: PA Images)

Any talking down of Southampton or Leeds owing to recent form is risking overplaying the situation and downplaying their quality. Norwich have failed to beat either over the course of the regular Championship season. 

It would represent a daunting task, but not one that is beyond the improved Canaries based on the evidence of the last few weeks. 

There is an argument that Norwich, who are the only top-six side with a lower average possession than their opponents per game, would be better suited to facing Southampton given their ideological commitment to holding the ball during clashes. 

Martin's side have given away big opportunities and suffered in transition of late. Those are the type of vulnerabilities that Norwich thrive upon. 

Leeds are also possession heavy - but have the second strongest defence in the Championship and arguably a higher grade of player. Farke's side will end the campaign with over 90 points and potentially a 20-point cushion to City depending on results today. That is a big gap to bridge. 

Even Southampton have 84. That is average above for fourth, and even third, position and close to the record number of points accrued for that position, which was Charlton with 88 back in 1997/98. 

Russell Martin's Southampton are a potential play-off opponent for Norwich City. (Image: PA Images)

These are Championship heavyweights compared to the norm. Neither should be taken lightly either in or out of form. 

But crucially, Norwich have shown with their form and performances that they are capable of being competitive and finding solutions to overcome them. That East Anglian derby victory over Ipswich a matter of weeks ago proved it. 

There is even an argument that a two-legged semi-final represents more jeopardy than a one-legged final, given the quality City have in forward areas. 

But, cut through all the numbers and trends set by the history books, and it shows that Norwich are in the hat. That can only be met with three words - bring it on.