Quick top-flight return is far from certain for Norwich City

Russell Martin and Michael Turner sum up the air of resignation after Norwich City's 4-0 Premier League defeat at Manchester United. 
Picture by Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd Russell Martin and Michael Turner sum up the air of resignation after Norwich City's 4-0 Premier League defeat at Manchester United. Picture by Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd

Thursday, May 8, 2014
6:30 AM

Shaking off the damage and disappointment of relegation can be far more difficult than expected, as Norwich City fans already know all too well.

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With the riches of the Premier League softening the blow, Norwich City’s drop into the Championship will be expected to be temporary by many.

The pain of relegation may be all too fresh for City supporters this morning but the Canaries will inevitably be installed as one of the favourites for next season’s Championship title in the coming weeks.

However, research on the impact of Premier League relegation in the past 10 seasons has revealed that City have just a 26pc chance of returning to the top tier at the first attempt.

The survey, calculated by statistics boffins at www.sportingintelligence.com, found the headline figures that:

• 50pc of relegated clubs have not returned

• 30pc have been relegated to League One or further.

• An average fall in annual income of £20million.

• An average of four years to gain promotion back to the top flight.

The survey also provides a positive for those involved with Norwich City.

• Click here to view the full report

There has been an average drop in attendances of 4,265 per game – other than at Carrow Road.

City were the only club of the 30 to record a rise in average attendance and are unlikely to see much of a drop in attendance next season.

The income findings are equally indecisive for City, after clearing the club’s external debts during three seasons amongst the riches of the Premier League.

The average fall in annual income, however, is likely to be an even scarier figure for chief executive David McNally (pictured) and the club’s board.

Relegation will see the Canaries miss out on even more Premier League riches, as new £5.5billion broadcast deals kick in.

The club which finishes bottom of the table on Sunday will earn £63m in TV money this season, more than the £60.8m Manchester United made last season as champions.

There is then £1.2m in prize money per position in the table, rising to £24m for the champions, meaning 18th place for the Canaries would result in a total of over £64m.

Of course the Premier League provide parachute payments, of £60m spread over four years, which will soften the blow. And with so many valuable playing assets, City’s financial situation should be stable enough to provide a solid base to build for promotion again.

It is the psychological aspect that is often underestimated though.

When City were relegated in 2005, it took six seasons and a fall into League One before they were able to properly hit the reboot button and push their way back to prominence.

If City can buck the trends and get back at the first time of asking, as the likes of West Ham, Newcastle and West Brom have all proved is possible in recent seasons, then relegation could prove to be little more than a hiccup in City’s history.

But spend too long away from the top table and its ever-increasing piles of cash, and the high points of the last three seasons could soon become distant memories.

Follow David Freezer on Twitter @davefreezer and Sporting Intelligence @sportingintel

27 comments

  • Goldie thou art tarnished. Henceforth shall thee be known as Bronzie

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    wivenhoebudgie

    Wednesday, May 14, 2014

  • IMO there are only about 4 players I would want to stay at City, after watching nearly the same players picked all season except for injuries The rest including the GK are only just about 1st Div. Quality and unless there is a good clearout and some quality brought into the team which should include hungry youngsters, City will be lower half Chumpionship by the end of next season. You can only get quality by having brilliant scouts who spot tallent others have missed or by spending money both of which seem in short supply at City.

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    goldie

    Friday, May 9, 2014

  • I am new to English football and picked this team over the big ones. The key is quality of players. Van Wolfswinkel was a huge reach and Hooper was equally disappointing. The next level down is not an easy one as there are lots of hungry teams and Wigan proved impressive again in FA Cup. Keeping young players like Redmond will be the key. Who is responsible for buying players? Was it Hughton or the owners? Not sure if its like American football but they must be on same page. Something is missing here with Norwich.

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    Craig Carter

    Friday, May 9, 2014

  • With the end game now known I sincerely hope we are in for a summer of recriminations on a season or maybe even two gone past. If there is not a cohesive unit at Carrow Road, including the fans, then we could have the delights of League 1 football season after next. The key is keeping players and settling the managerial issues. Where various names have been put forward I would look to keep faith in NA as he does seem to have had a positive impact, given the games he had for the short tenure he was on hiding to nothing as let’s faced it we always lose to Fulham and his affinity to the club. As has been voiced by others I do not see Malky as an answer, still a legend in my eyes but as a player. The other positive is that NA seems to have the players on his side and that may help keep some. My concern is do we have a board willing to forsake their Holy Grail of money in the bank and bring in players as required! Having decamped to Jakarta from Singapore I was able to find a haven here where I could see the games when in PL, at least with the Championship Review and some games live I will not be totally starved. The beauty of the boards is that we all have our opinion and whilst we will not all agree I wish that we all get behind the club in positive manner and drive for bouncing back. Final point, on the matter of being a small club yes against the likes of the Liverpool’s, Chelsea’s, Man City’s of this world we are but comparing against the others when were in League 1 most times we had better home crowds than some of the PL clubs – so yes small but exclusive! OTBC

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    Singapore Canary

    Friday, May 9, 2014

  • Greetings from a far away Norwich supporter based in Indonesia. Interesting to the see the many varied reasons for the drop in Norwich's goal scoring prowess. Surely the rot started when Lambert at the scent of more money left for Villa closely followed by Holt and Morrison to where ever. Those two were scaring the life out of all the premier leagues defenders. The team after their departure continued to the bitter end to play their hearts out and always looked to push on with game, they were entertaining. Hopefully we can hold on to the so called players on the move list and get back to the premier leagues asp. What happened to the 6 year plan? ColC

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    Colin Cleaver

    Friday, May 9, 2014

  • Well, he's right up to a point. This Norwich City was not good enough for the Premier League. We have Hughton to thank for that. Because we could and should have been good enough.

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    Cecil

    Friday, May 9, 2014

  • NB your attitude will ensure we stay down forever. Ok without being bought out by a billionaire with a huge ego, Norwich will be a small club when compared with Man U, Man C, Chelsea etc. However do you really think we are a smaller club than Crystal Palace, Stoke, Swansea, West Brom etc.? We have been relegated because we took on a manager who believed as you seem to that Norwich did not belong in the Premier League. He therefore replaced the self belief and winning mentality that Paul Lambert and the circumstance of finding themselves in League One and the subsequent escape had given the team, with a disasterous and unjustified inferiority complex. Norwich and many other teams in the EPL will not be able to compete for the very best players and therefore must get the best from the players they have through tactics and motivation. Hughton and his cronies were rubbish at both. Now we have to start again and please not with one of two managers who was worse than Hughton this season ie Di Canio or Malky Mackay. Di Canio's failings were obvious but if we are unhappy about paying a huge sum for a striker who has failed, ask Mr Tan about some of Malky's purchases.

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    waclor

    Friday, May 9, 2014

  • "Although WE let in....."

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    MichiganCanary

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • If we appoint Mackay, then he needs to bring a top notch attacking coach with him to get whatever strikers we keep scoring. Although the let in a lot of goals, scoring another 10 would likely have kept us in the EPL. In the Championship we need a plus 50 goal difference, 10 of which should come from Suffolk!

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    MichiganCanary

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • Let's not panic. This club has been mismanaged at board and team level all season. While statistics might show how tough it is to go back up they do not take account of the Premier League riches. NCFC are not a basket case like some others who went down. Provided we appoint someone halfway decent we should have a good chance of bouncing back. Much as I love NA's loyalty, we must appoint a specialist in getting us promoted. There is only one man to do that. Malky Mackay. He is out of work, desperate to prove his former employers wrong and he knows the Championship. As for Sherwood (frightening), Lennon (not even the best manager in Scotland) forget it. Just for once I hope the board make a sensible decision based on the resources available. I would even consider Big Sam if West Ham got rid of him. We simply must get up again or revisit the decline we had before Lambert.

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    suffolkcanary

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • I don't think the Premier League was out of RvW's league. It was taking him time to come to terms with it then he got injured, which set him back, and the pressure started to mount from his lack of goals and it became a vicious circle of frustration and possibly trying too hard. None of his previous pedigree has disappeared overnight. Nice breather over the Summer and he'll come good.

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    LittleYellowBirdie

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • Can't believe I'm asking this question but.....Who thinks if Van(can't score) winkle happens to stay would he do better in the championship? The premiership was without a doubt way out of his league, but who knows?

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    Rottsrool

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • NB how do you define a small club? It is true we do not have the financial support of a billionaire with a huge ego and therefore we will not be challenging the likes of Man U, Man C, Chelsea etc. However we should not have this pathetic inferiority complex when we compare ourselves against Stoke, Crystal Palace, West Brom, Hull, Swansea, Sunderland etc. If we do then we may as well drop down several leagues and enjoy derby games with Kings Lynn Town. (No disrespect KL and good luck to Gary and the boys). We know we cannot afford the very best players but we certainly cannot afford a manager who cannot get the best from what he has. Hughton and his cronies were incompetent at tactics, motivation and at choosing players to sign for the club and that is why we had a rubbish season. With a decent manager, maybe Adams, maybe Howe, maybe Phelan but definitely not Malky who is as useless as Hughton, an improved scouting system, belief and a large slice of old fashioned guts, we can bounce back and stay for some time.

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    waclor

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • There is no guarantee that we will go straight back up but this should still be our goal - although let's avoid the on loan tee-shirts of 1995; that arrogance got what it deserved. I agree with those who have lamented that the City squad should have never got relegated. But through inappropriate tactics it has happened. What we need to do now is pick ourselves up and get on with the job at hand. Some players will go and others will not - whoever we are left with must get that hungry feeling back. We also need to decide whether Adams is the man or not. We mustn't employ him because it is the easiest thing to do: he should only be City's manager next season because he is the best man for the job. If he is not, then we must employ the best; not another CH type manager, there are plenty of these in the lower leagues doing just enough to stay in employment - ask an Ipswich supporter. I am also not convinced about Lennon or Mackay. If we decide that Adams is not the man for the job, then I'd like us to take a chance on Eddie Howe. He's a good manager and knows of the talent in the lower divisions. Anyway, to misquote Dylan Thomas, let's go out kicking and screaming on Sunday, metaphysically speaking. OTBC

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    Imperial Echoes

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • This just in the whole Arsenal squad has a bad bout of food poisoning. Are we willing to play an under 11s team? Lol last seasons final league postition was misleading we dont deserve to be in the EPL earlier this season CH was harping on about another 10game unbeaten run as if we were owed it 10 game beaten run more like. Ho hum

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    Patrick Grey

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • To are get anywhere they are going to have to play football or is it a matter of being paid for turning up again!

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    beverley

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • What really irks me is those now saying you finish where you deserve to be were the same people saying it was blind luck that we finished 11th last season. Truth is there's a degree of where you deserve to be plus or minus a bit of luck. The first two seasons the luck was on the positive side. This season it was on the negative, with too many injuries for us coupled with Norwich being the victims of too many outstanding goalkeeper performances. I mean, three of the nominations for save of the season were against us! We need to keep it in perspective and decide that next season we're going to go for broke to go back up again. Never mind this nancying around worrying how difficult it is to get out of the Championship. It can be done, so focus on making it happen.

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    LittleYellowBirdie

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • Realistically we will ,lose Ruddy, Snodgrass, Hooper and probably Redmond along with sending back our loan players. I would imagine Fer will wish to move on as will the wolf. So our senior team will be Bunn Martin Whittaker Turner Basong Bennett Ollson and Garrido at the back, Howson Johnson Tettey midfield, with Wes in support of Beccio and Bennet, Pilkington and Murphy making up the strike options. However along with the parachute of 16m we should raise a further 12-15m from player sales. 30 m buys you a lot in the Nationwide so there is no reason we should not have a season at least in and around the play offs as a minimum. In my mind Lamberts greatest and first achievement was to unite board, fans and players in a common cause. There is no reason why Adams can not repeat this. A big part of this season's disaster has been that a big section of the support were baying for the manager's departure which right or wrong got through to the players towards the end. Lets all get a grip, this is not the end of the world or even the day before it. OTBC. IMIST

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    Grasshopper

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • NB how many of the 40 managers were sacked, how many left for 'better things'.How many managers have Chelsea been through in that period, you can prove anything with selected statistics.

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    wivenhoebudgie

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • NB how many of the 40 managers were sacked, how many left for 'better things'.How many managers have Chelsea been through in that period, you can prove anything with selected statistics.

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    wivenhoebudgie

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • Where has Johnny been all season? Crocodile tears for Hughton after the mess he made in buying a number of useless players and the often hopeless pitch tactics he employed. No the error of the board was in not appointing NA in January instead of handing him the poisoned chalice with five games to go! As we have seen and Chelsea clearly demonstrated the team has been picking up pace.To outwit Mourinho and plot the previous youth team victory over that same club is no mean feat in itself. As the Daily Telegraph put it some weeks ago "Neil Adams is a clever fellow" NOW IF THE BOARD THINKS IT THROUGH it is a straight choice between an experienced manager (sometimes experienced managers fail because they lack the perception to change approaches at a new club and pursue tactics that are worn out CH is an example) or a bright new flexible talented manager trusting in his own ability - that (particularly if he persuades his team to play for pride against Arsenal and go down with dignity) spells Adams to me! There are exceptions to the older manager outlined here and when met with cause surprise - Tony Pulis surprised everyone when radically changing tactics to gain outstanding success at Crystal Palace and become the manager of the Year! There is another Manager I can think of - elderly now - who has I believe seven promotions to his credit - great sense of humour, terrific flexible tactics but brooks no interference at board level and that might be too much for NCFC.

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    mardler

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • this season has been my worse experiance of being a city fan,I have watched City home and away from the late 60`s and this season with CH in charge I cringed every time he put a team out,he did not have a positive bone in his body,he infected one and all,fans and players alike and he personally destroyed the confidence we had in our club,we will be back.We must make sure our long term manager is not as dour and defensive as CH was or we will be playing non league football if someone of CH ilk takes charge.Come on u yellows ut the smile back into your game and get the fans backing you again.If we loose a few players it will only be the players who only play for cash and not for pride who go.Lets all get behind Delia and Neil and get winning again starting on sunday.We only have to win by 20 goals .OTBC

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    canarykid

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • ... and then you woke up, Johny. Hughton proved to be a dullard. Shame, but there it is. Let`s have Nigel Clough. Son of God.

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    Mad Brewer

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • Quote from 'Wikipedia.' : ''Hughton led Newcastle to win the 2009–10 Football League Championship, securing automatic promotion on 5 April 2010 with five games remaining and securing the title.... Newcastle were promoted back to the Premier League after just one season away. Under Hughton, Newcastle enjoyed a strong start to the 2010–11 season, recording famous wins against Aston Villa, Arsenal and arch rivals Sunderland.'' If only the board hadn't panicked and had a little more faith.....

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    Johny

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • For manager I would like to see us scouring the lower divisions for an up and coming pushy manager who has something to prove - just like our last successful manager.

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    MichiganCanary

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • Lot depends on who is appointed as manager. I would rather stick with NA than go for Malkey. There is a nucleus of good championship players, good young players coming through. Need a couple of forwards who can score lead the line. We're not as bad as many are making out - have underachieved badly and with the right leadership can be competitive in the C'ship. I think we may do OK. OTBC

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    DJ_FRAMBOISE

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

  • A club is as good as their record shows, nothing more, nothing less. When the chips are down you have to put up, if you can't put up, you just have to shut up. Norwich are where they are because that's where they deserve to be. They simply are not good enough to be in the Premier League and as soon as the Norwich board and some of their fans realise this, only then can they move forward. Someone wrote on here that if Norwich fans think that this is a small club, then it will be. That's my point, like it or not NCFC IS a small club. They may have had an opportunity to rub shoulders with the likes of Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal etc, but they will NEVER be in their league. Someone also said that history isn't important. History is what makes a country and it's people. History is also what makes a football club. Norwich haven't exactly graced themselves in glory here have they? They have a reputation of being a sacking club, 40 managers since their professional inception, why? The answer to this question, is because they have nearly always failed to live in the real world. When Non League Luton Town visited Carrow Road and out played Norwich to relegate them from the FA Cup, do you think that they turned up thinking that they were better than Norwich? No of course they didn't, but I will put money on it that Norwich thought that they were going to deal with little Luton Town easily. Because of their bombastic attitude, they got their fingers burnt, and consequently, they suffered one one of the most embarrassing defeats that any Premier League club has ever endured. Now that IS making history, but not the sort of history to be proud of, is it? Luton Town won that game because when they turned up, they realised that they were outclassed. So they had to fight their way to victory, and it payed off. NCFC should take a leaf out of their book, realise your position in the world of football, then who knows, they might make some history that they could be proud of.

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    NB

    Thursday, May 8, 2014

The views expressed in the above comments do not necessarily reflect the views of this site

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