Predictions: Where Norwich City will find the points they need to secure Premier League survival

Norwich City manager Chris Hughton during Saturday's Barclays Premier League 2-1 defeat at the Cardiff City Stadium. Picture by Tom Smith/Focus Images Ltd Norwich City manager Chris Hughton during Saturday's Barclays Premier League 2-1 defeat at the Cardiff City Stadium. Picture by Tom Smith/Focus Images Ltd

Monday, February 3, 2014
1:02 PM

Predicting how many points Norwich City need to secure Premier League survival this season is akin to guessing how many beans are in a bag of coffee at the moment.

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The English top flight has been as unpredictable as ever from the very start of the season, right from the opening day when Aston Villa won 3-1 at Arsenal and the following week when newly-promoted Cardiff beat Manchester City 3-2.

The big teams eventually found their feet and left the rest for dust, leaving fans across the country frustrated as teams in the bottom half constantly trip over one another.

Just six points separate Stoke in 11th place, on 25 points, and bottom-of-the-table Fulham, on 19.

So where does that set the magic number needed to secure survival this season?

The last two seasons 37 points have been sufficient to guarantee safety and in five of the last 10 Premier League seasons, 35 points would have been enough.

The Canaries currently have 24 points and I believe they are capable of finding the 11 points needed and in my predictions, see below, I’m confident they can find 12 for some added breathing space.

That is far too close for comfort for City supporters though – and far closer than this Canaries squad should be to the relegation scrap.

It is a rather sorry looking set of results I have come up with though, with eight losses in the remaining 14 games for Chris Hughton’s side.

Wins at home against Stoke, Sunderland and West Brom will be key, as the final five matches are the stuff of nightmares for City fans.

If the season were to pan out as I have predicted, and City scrape to safety, then I’m sure Hughton would not be the manager come the start of next season.

It all looks to be heading towards another Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Sky Sports Survival Sunday Special again, just as when City went down in May 2005, following that miserable 6-0 loss at Fulham.

But you can look at that in two ways.

Should Hughton somehow start getting more from his squad in the season’s closing months then survival should be something he can comfortably achieve, with 15 points to take them to 39 points surely enough to avoid that last-day scrap.

One thing looks certain though, the club’s board seem to have decided that Hughton is the man to lead that fight, his job looks safe until the summer.

So those home games, when the support of the Carrow Road faithful can act as the clichéd ‘12th man’ and roar the players forward, are going to be crucial.

No one expected City to beat both Arsenal and Manchester United 1-0 at home last season, and in this crazy Premier League season, who can say for certain that Manchester City, Tottenham or Liverpool can’t be beaten as well?

This season, nothing is certain.

Predictions

Sat Feb 8, Manchester City (H) – Lose (0 points)

Tues Feb 11, West Ham (A) – Draw (1)

Sun Feb 23, Tottenham Hotspur (H) – Draw (1)

Sun Mar 2, Aston Villa (A) – Lose (0)

Sat Mar 8, Stoke City (H) – Win (3)

Sat Mar 15, Southampton (A) – Lose (0)

Sat Mar 22, Sunderland (H) – Win (3)

Sat Mar 29, Swansea City (A) – Draw (1)

Sat Apr 5, West Brom (H) – Win (3)

Sat Apr 12, Fulham (A) – Lose (0)

Sat Apr 19, Liverpool (H) – Lose (0)

Sat Apr 26, Manchester United (A) – Lose (0)

Sat May 3, Chelsea (A) – Lose (0)

Sun May 11, Arsenal (H) – Lose (0)

Total points – 12

Do you agree that 35 points will be enough to survive? Share your predictions for the rest of the season by leaving a comment below.

Related links

Yell Army: Reporter David Freezer re-lives the memory of Norwich’s 2005 relegation

Norwich City still have no answer to the most pressing question

Shot-shy Norwich City playing a dangerous game

60 comments

  • This is a pointless exercise. City have just surrendered a one goal lead and rolled over for the bottom club in the league. There is no way up from that.

    Report this comment

    kenfoggo

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • I`m fed up with Archie today. About as competent as Hughtrollerwood.

    Report this comment

    Mad Brewer

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • Some of those predictions are fantasy rather than reality. As for the person who says a wild card win against Man U....it's not April the 1st yet! Lest year Canary fans were more concerned about the results of other teams going their way than their own team's results, I suspect it will be the same this year.

    Report this comment

    KeithS

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • We wont get points anywhere, we cant score goals and have a defence like a sieve

    Report this comment

    Henry

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • I agree Smudger75. Every prediction on here is fantasy, from the obvious to the crazy. I too think that we can take a point from Man U, they're hardly flying this season, are they. And I'd also wager we might take Spuds out as well as I don't see them as half the threat they were before. OTBC

    Report this comment

    Powers1902

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • Thinking, waclor? What are you thinking??

    Report this comment

    Mad Brewer

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • Unless you have a really skilled manager such as Arsene Wenger the only way to progress (for a limited time) is to keep changing your manager until doing so coincides with a couple of good results (as may be the case with Sunderland) and then with luck you might begin a run during which your team punches above its weight. Just like Norwich did when Lambert was first appointed.

    Report this comment

    Armchair fan

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • This is well past squeaky bum time, sorry but think we have virtually dropped through the trapdoor and optimisticlly think about 7 or 8 point is the best that will be picked up, but as is said "Miracles do sometimes happen!"

    Report this comment

    blackdog2

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • -15 will probably be out of reach after next weeks likely 8-0 spanking. Or maybe it will be the shock of the season.....

    Report this comment

    DJ_FRAMBOISE

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • I have ManC - L, WHam - D, Spurs - L, Villa - L, Stoke - W, Soton - D, Sund - W, Swans - L, WBrom - W, Ful - L, Lpool - L, ManU - L, Chel - L, Ar$ - L. That's 35 and not enough in my opinion. Need an unexpected result from one of the big games to keep us up - or a win at Fulham!

    Report this comment

    richard1

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • What's Hughton thinking in the picture above? My suggestion: "What on earth in this board doing? They should have fired me at least three months ago. At this rate I won't be getting to Barbados at Easter. Let's see, perhaps if I drop Ruddy and play Hooper at left back........or how about Becchio, Hooper, Wolfie and Elmander on against Man City and drop Bass and Bennett.....could work. I'll just check Thomas Cook for flights."

    Report this comment

    waclor

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • We`ll roll ManC over easily. They`re on a goalless and winless run of one game. We gave the mighty Cardiff a tough game, so this bunch of Northern under-achievers should be easy meat. Then I woke up. ManC are going to be angry...... My pre-season prediction of 49 points looks sick. Even sicker is the 48 `goals for` estimate. Even the `goals against` of 57 looks like it might be swept away in our death throes. I must have been reading too many of Dubai`s Utopia drenched postings! I really do envy old DC. Such a happy soul.

    Report this comment

    Mad Brewer

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • so everyone is assuming we will beat Sunderland who beat Newcastle 3-0 at st james park who in turn should have beaten us 4-0.we have 4 wins since October and scored just 19 goals get real everyone

    Report this comment

    jack1888

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • Hughton's remit was to keep us up in the PL - well thats obviously not going to happen now. It is time for the Board to sack him.

    Report this comment

    Jim

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • We`ve thrown away far too many points in games where we messed up. Hull (A), Villa(H), Cardiff(H), Fulham(H), Cardiff (A). Each game has its own story. Hull`s penalty & sending off. Snodgrass`s `grab & miss` penalty vs Villa. Multitude of shots but no goals vs Cardiff. Fulham`s defence was truly laughable but, despite taking the lead, we threw it away. And Cardiff again. 1 point out of 15. We should be safe already!

    Report this comment

    Mad Brewer

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • I am coming to the conclusion that no statement supporting the manager or action to replace him and his coaching staff by the board, combined with no money spent in the Jan window says the board has accepted we are likely to be relegated, and therefore are consolidating resources for the championship. Obviously, like supporters, they will be hoping we escape, but are not planning for it.

    Report this comment

    MichiganCanary

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • On posts made a few games back I talked of needing 4 wins. After another defeat that target looks harder but not beyond the realms of possibility. And forget who we play. Stoke and WBA got unexpected results this weekend. Another barometer reading is goal difference. No worse than -15 is needed. Look at the league now and its us and 3 others who fail on that account.

    Report this comment

    Lincs Canary

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • i think 36 points may prove to be enough; 4 wins?! But; that means winning 4 in 9 discounting the next game & ignoring the last 4; that means doubling our recent win rate!!! Can this team do it? Yep with a change of Manager There's not one game left that is a shoe-in (that was meant to be Saturday on my list!) so I think your draws are somewhat optimistic Time will tell; but I am one very concerned supporter; its time for a change to change nothing would be criminal

    Report this comment

    A Fan

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • Im not even sure we will reach 35pts? Awkward. That isnt to say other will do massively better, but they certainly have but they do have better run ins on the most part. Horrible stance to take hoping others will do worse than us but it's aall we've got left now. WBA, Sunderland & Stoke at home must be considered utterly must win. The likely hood is we will win at least 2 of them an draw the other. This means regardless of all that, that we must go away an do something unheard of and consistently pick up ppoints on the road. Places like West Ham, Villa, Swansea & dreaded Fulham cannot be feared anymore as we simply need points. Ill always take anything away from home so even 4 draws at them would do me as long as we win those 3 vital home games. If we can pick up a odd windraw against the big boys then blooming brilliant. I wasn't confident of getting anything off Man City before last night & im certainly not now after Chelsea angered the monster. Guessing as usual were gonna be the team to feel someones revenge. Quite obvious whats going to happen, everyone around me (likely me included as I just dont rate him) in the Lower Barclay will be on Joe harts back from the word go & like David Marshall he will have a truly world class game. If we just left him alone he would make his usual blunder and we may get something lol!

    Report this comment

    Mattias333

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • What's Hughton thinking in the picture above? My suggestion: "What on earth in this board doing? They should have fired me at least three months ago. At this rate I won't be getting to Barbados at Easter. Let's see, perhaps if I drop Ruddy and play Hooper at left back........or how about Becchio, Hooper, Wolfie and Elmander on against Man City and drop Bass and Bennett.....could work. I'll just check Thomas Cook for flights."

    Report this comment

    waclor

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • I think we will get 39-40 points which hopefully will be enough OTBC

    Report this comment

    George Kershaw

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • HUGHTON OUT The Board out there will be vocal sh1te on Saturday

    Report this comment

    Colby Army!

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • What am I thinking Brew? I'm thinking that I've been here before watching my beloved team get relegated through a lack of ambition and the courage to take the right decision. The gulf between the Premiership and Championship is widening every season and we had an excellent chance of ending up on the right side of the chasm. Then the board either didn't have the sense to see how Hughton was taking the team down or didn't have the guts to act. Either way it makes me feel sick.

    Report this comment

    waclor

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • And that was a point, not a win! Who's the fool?

    Report this comment

    Smudger75

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • Palace(H), Swansea(H), Fulham(H), Villa(H)....we did not win ANY of them. Why assume we will beat Stoke(H), West Brom(H), Sunderland(H)?? Hughton should have been sacked last October. We are 75% relegated already.

    Report this comment

    CanaryWest

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • 33 points is all I can see us getting, Championship is waiting

    Report this comment

    Derek McDonald

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • The Carrow Road crowd can be one of the most intimidating but it's the opposition who need to feel it not city's own players or the manager.Instead of arguing with the crowd arguing with the players,aren't we all supposed to be on the same side?This season at best Carrow Road has felt like a blancmange.There may be,therefore,better opportunities away at Villa and Swansea but West Ham without Carroll ought to be a banker.We may well end up at Fulham again-we know how that went.OTBC.

    Report this comment

    Peter Watson

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • Can I suggest a more apt game? Guess who will leave in the summer when we are relegated? Following Hughton and his cronies: Ruddy; Yobo (given); Bassong; Snodgrass; Fer; Pilkington; Guitierez (given); Ellmander (given); van Wolfswinkel; Surman; Ward (if still on the books - not too sure, sorry) Hoolahan (given). Will Malky be appointed to bring us back? I hope so.

    Report this comment

    Soglio Star

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • If I were you, I would start planning for next season's away trips to Doncaster etc.

    Report this comment

    blue tractor

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • Well i do believe there is a lot of negativity out there. I also believe this year will be a 40 point total required, which we can do with a little belief (especially from our strikers). The last 14 game has 42 point available (which would be nice) but there are 7 games in our league (prem B) Thats 21 points that we must be fighting to achieve. I want to finish top of Prem B not just survive.

    Report this comment

    dazzerlil

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • These predictions cast a dark shadow over CR. On the positive side destiny is still in our own hands. However, picking up the required points will involve getting the three points against ALL of the easier fixtures as well as perhaps pulling a couple of shock results out of the bag against the bigger teams. We desperately need to adopt a ruthless approach to games, and that doesn't involve playing like we are content with a 1 nil lead.

    Report this comment

    Mellow_Yellow

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • Just look at the results against Hull, Villa, Cardiff, Fulham and Cardiff again. 14 points thrown away. Hughton has turned this lot into a bunch of well-paid losers. Unlike the fans who are pay-well losers.

    Report this comment

    Mad Brewer

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • Further to last comment I predict 15 points; this includes a win at Villa and a draw at Old Trafford as well as Craven Cottage. I'd like to think that deep beneath that calm and measured exterior CH has a vindictive streak and is already plotting to get one back over Lambchops. But then again...

    Report this comment

    Mellow_Yellow

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • Under Hughton we only want nil. I feel so sorry for Redmond and the young Murphys.

    Report this comment

    el dingo

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • Agree Daz. We have a squad capable of so much more than struggling to beat bottom 5 sides. Were capable of topping the Premier League B League. We just play no where near our potential 90% of the time.

    Report this comment

    Mattias333

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • Can't be bothered. Unless we have a change at the top we're never going to get enough points to stay up. Additionally I think we will finish bottom!

    Report this comment

    baguio

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • b4 Christmas i might have thought possible, without a change in manager! But discount the next one and the last 4? and we need to take 12 points from 9 games (if 36 is enough) that's a big improvement and would need us to do something that we have struggled with and that's to score goals (note the plural) I have come to accept that CH will be here until the last breath of this season, so its time to get positive, time to get behind the team, to make some noise, to fill the ground with our voices - it has become a morgue off late I want to walk up the hill to sit in county halls car park for 45 mins (without moving) with a sore throat and a smile on my face So lets change the record; get positive; do it for us, the 25000 that go every week, its time the 12th man got his act together again Lets make some noise We can make it happen - no happy clappers please, don't like them PS Didn't think I would be writing anything positive when starting!!!

    Report this comment

    A Fan

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • 2 FEB.... 7 MARCH... 3 APRIL 0 MAY, i think that's the best available, not quite the same results as David but same points Total =35 not enough with our goal difference, but if we turnover AV and scrape Southampton, Swansea draw, dodge a point at Fulham, that would give us 41, that's enough.... but it's all if's and buts, we are not scoring enough goals.. my head say 33points, second from bottom on goal difference.

    Report this comment

    OLDYELLA

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • There is more chance finding points in left over Christmas crackers. The only problem there would be that neither the board or the management team would know how to pull them! Doomed the only belief is the prediction of the last five games, (all losses) these teams will all be fighting for champions league so no favours there!

    Report this comment

    JB

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • Yes KeithS, that's why I called it a wildcard! There's usually at least one surprise result in a season that's why I went for a point at Man U. Doesn't mean it's going to happen. I just thought Man U are not the powerhouse of previous seasons, so why not? There's a bit of fantasy in all the results. I got to 34 by giving us the benefit of the doubt. Just my predictions that's all!

    Report this comment

    Smudger75

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • Before the Hull game I predicted we would end up on 34 points. So far my precdictions are coming true. I had a win to Hull, Newcastle draw, Cardiff defeat. Looking forward I have wins against Stoke and Sunderland (looking less and less likely based on thier recent performances and results), draws with West Ham, Southampton (hopeful), West Brom and Man U (my wildcard, or maybe not?)! The rest defeats. Unfortunmately I can't see 34 being enough.

    Report this comment

    Smudger75

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • I have ManC - L, WHam - D, Spurs - L, Villa - L, Stoke - W, Soton - D, Sund - W, Swans - L, WBrom - W, Ful - L, Lpool - L, ManU - L, Chel - L, Ar$ - L. That's 35 and not enough in my opinion. Need an unexpected result from one of the big games to keep us up - or a win at Fulham!

    Report this comment

    richard1

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • This is well past squeaky bum time, sorry but think we have virtually dropped through the trapdoor and optimisticlly think about 7 or 8 point is the best that will be picked up, but as is said "Miracles do sometimes happen!"

    Report this comment

    blackdog2

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • More points on a compass, possibly not more points on a triangle, no Budgie had city getting 35 points but after Cardiff its only 34.Had a draw there.

    Report this comment

    wivenhoebudgie

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • We are averaging a point a game. If we maintain that average - and why shouldnt we? we'll accumulate, of course, 38 points which ought to be enough. Besides I think we can beat Fulham who are, statistically, the worst team, so actually 15 more points is possible if the other predictions are sound.

    Report this comment

    Cecil

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • I think we'll need more than the 35 points predicted above, but I wouldn't write off all them home games against the 'top' sides. There will be a couple of shock results in there and I think we'll be closer to the 40 point mark. It will be a close run thing for survival though.

    Report this comment

    Jimmy Smith

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • Have looked up Wardy - and he signed full time at Bournemouth last summer ...

    Report this comment

    Soglio Star

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • Looking at the comments of Tettey after the game on Saturday its becoming clear that the players are losing confidence and that as well as the complete lack of any form will take us down i feel. The board gave a clear indication of their intentions towards the manager by not making funds available in the transfer window. The two signings were a joke!

    Report this comment

    block d row o

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • Thanks for last night Chelsea. Now we have to face Man City fired up. (I expect Hughton will point that out to his team).

    Report this comment

    Lincs Canary

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • It's too difficult at the moment to predict what NCFC might do on any given day. It's that old problem consistency. Consistency is used in all sports to predict what an opponent or yourself might do in a game but where it does not exist, as with NCFC, prediction becomes almost impossible. The next best indicator is the form of your opponents but they also need to be consistent to make this remotely possible.

    Report this comment

    NICEONE

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • I'd already predicted 36 points.35,this season,may well be enough.It'll be skin of your teeth time until the final day that's for sure.

    Report this comment

    santa

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • false hopes as good as relegated,

    Report this comment

    Dave

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • 33 points is all I can see us getting, Championship is waiting

    Report this comment

    Derek McDonald

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • I`m with you there, waclor. If we get relegated instead of consolidating, it will be a massive lost opportunity for the NCFC Business. (Or Club, if you`re a romantic).

    Report this comment

    Mad Brewer

    Wednesday, February 5, 2014

  • GK, you win the optimism competition. Prize: A holiday with Dubai Canary, to bring you back down to earth. He`s SUCH a pessimist.

    Report this comment

    Mad Brewer

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • Well i do believe there is a lot of negativity out there. I also believe this year will be a 40 point total required, which we can do with a little belief (especially from our strikers). The last 14 game has 42 point available (which would be nice) but there are 7 games in our league (prem B) Thats 21 points that we must be fighting to achieve. I want to finish top of Prem B not just survive.

    Report this comment

    dazzerlil

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • Nothing is certain? Once again the triumph of optimism over the reality of past performance! Norwich have just surrendered a goal lead and rolled over to the bottom team in the league. There is no way up from that.

    Report this comment

    kenfoggo

    Monday, February 3, 2014

  • I hope you are right GK. Say we do get 40 (!). Season 1 (Gorbalschev): 47 pts. Season 2 (Hugh Trollderwood): 44 pts. Season 3 (Hugh Trollderwood): 40 pts. Season 4??

    Report this comment

    Mad Brewer

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • I think we will get 39-40 points which hopefully will be enough OTBC

    Report this comment

    George Kershaw

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

  • Where will they find the points.... Under the rainbow... until the remove the mental midget who is the present manager I have no doubt I shall not see NCFC this side of the pond again for many years. I have enjoyed watching Norwich for the last couple of years but I regret that the Directors of the club have buried their heads in the sand and not looked at what has been happening, and this present season has been an unmitigated dismal failure. And there is only one person who must take the blame for that...

    Report this comment

    canuk

    Tuesday, February 4, 2014

The views expressed in the above comments do not necessarily reflect the views of this site

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