CLICK TO ENLARGE: The final 10 games for the eight teams most threatened with Premier League relegation. Graphic: Annette Hudson
Countdown begins: Who do you think will be relegated from the Premier League this season?
Michael Bailey
Thursday, March 7, 2013
9:22 AM
The 20 top clubs in English football have just 10 fixtures remaining this season – and for some, that means just 10 fixtures left to save it.
With barely a quarter of the campaign to run and Manchester United already seemingly destined to wrap up the Premier League title with a handful of games to spare, attention is turning to the battle to stay in the top flight for the 2013-14 season.
And apart from the usual status and privilege that comes with a place at this country’s top football table, next season will carry a guaranteed minimum increase of 33 per cent in television revenue.
Needless to say, no club can afford to finish in the bottom three 6pm on Sunday, May 19.
Since the Premier League was reduced to 20 teams ahead of the 1995-96 campaign, only four times has an average of one point per game not been enough to earn survival.
And with Wigan currently in the final safety position with 24 points from 28 games, it looks like teams will need well under 38 points to avoid relegation from their 38 games this term.
With 32 points already in the bag, Norwich City should have the time and the games to get the points they will need to see them over the finishing line and retain their Premier League place beyond the summer.
Indeed, looking at City’s remaining 10 fixtures this season – substituting relegated Bolton and Wolves with Southampton and Reading – the 2011-12 corresponding fixtures saw City earn 15 points, including home wins over Swansea and Aston Villa.
To look at it another way, the Canaries picked up 11 points from their final 10 games last season, before finishing with in 12th position with 47 points.
In truth, there are teams sitting much more nervously than Chris Hughton’s men.
Of the three teams currently occupying the relegation zone, Reading’s remaining fixtures look the trickiest – with Saturday’s clash at home to Aston Villa a game both sides need three points from.
Paul Lambert’s Villa have home fixtures that could offer them the points to secure safety, while many in Norfolk will already be looking forward to the Birmingham outfit’s visit to Carrow Road on May 4.
Wigan are only above Villa on goal-difference and continuing involvement in the FA Cup means their trip to Manchester City is yet to be rearranged.
Where that game at The Etihad sits in the run-in could yet play a key role in the now-traditional great escape plotted by Roberto Martinez.
Wigan host Villa on the final day of the season.
Southampton – Saturday’s visitors to Carrow Road – still have only one victory under new boss Mauricio Pochettino and with games against Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham and Swansea on their way, it could yet be a nervy few weeks for the Premier League new boys.
But Harry Redknapp’s Queens Park Rangers will have high hopes of rising off the bottom of the league and on to safety.
Having beaten Southampton at St Mary’s last weekend, Rangers’ next seven games give them every chance of turning around a previously dyer situation.
• Who do you think is doomed for the Championship? Join the discussion by leaving a comment below…
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33 comments
why havent they got norwich one of the fov of going down becanse i can see clealey they cant score any goals
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Woodcock
Saturday, March 9, 2013
My prediction is as follows... Reading to go down in bottom place on 33 points Wigan next on 34 points then a toss of the coin between QPR and Villa both who I think will finish on 35 points. I can also see Southampton (if we beat them tomorrow) and Sunderland getting dragged into it as well after looking at their fixtures but think they will do just enough to survive. I'm 98% certain Norwich are safe this season and to be honest I have not been in the slightest bit worried about us going down. 8 points is a massive gap to close and that is without us getting another point all season and lets face it that is not likely to happen is it? I know we aren't the greatest team in the league but we certainly aren't the worst either so more points will surely be picked up along the way. I agree with Stew and would say we are pretty much safe already but just for the record I think we will pick up another couple of wins and a few draws between now and the end of the season and end up on a total of 44 points. OTBC
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mickncfc
Friday, March 8, 2013
Very naughty, waclor!
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Mad Brewer
Friday, March 8, 2013
With all the bright people in football, I have never understood why nobody has thought of naming a team "Mrs". It they did it would never go down.
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waclor
Friday, March 8, 2013
As a newly recruited underling of the Screeching Organisation, I think you are a totally dysfunctional geriatric, Stew. But I like you! ;-)
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Mad Brewer
Friday, March 8, 2013
I'd take that!
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DocOhNo
Friday, March 8, 2013
...Hear Ye!... Hear Ye!...Hear Ye!...after analysing the 'Ifs', 'Buts' and 'Maybes', I conclude that Norwich City is already safe from relegation this season. Teams that WILL be relegated are QPR 28 pts, Wigan 28pts and 'wait for it' Aston VIIIa 30pts, - Reading 30pts will escape because of their superior goal differnce to Aston VIIIa...Southampton will be next with 35 pts..... But don't put your house on it!...
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Stew Pydsodd
Friday, March 8, 2013
canarykid, wouldn`t you prefer Leeds, 1p5wich and Crystal Palace? ;-) The delights of Selhurst Park. Trouble is, Palace have a fair chance of making it! I`d love to see Malky succeed at Cardiff. All pales into insignificance - as Swiss said, "as long as we stay up". OTBC.
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Mad Brewer
Friday, March 8, 2013
Our fate really is in our own hands when you look at our remaining fixtures. A win vs Soton on Saturday & even waclor can begin to relax. Hope Tettey`s back soon. Another 2 or 3 games?
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Mad Brewer
Friday, March 8, 2013
Looking back to last summer with Lambo leaving and Holty maybe on his way, the pudits expected us to be in the bottom three for the season. But CH has brought in some useful players with the little money he's had available and he's had a steady hand on the tiller. So far it's been a success story even though some of the games have been uninspiring. It's QPR Reading and one of Vannilla, Wigan or S'ampton.
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cutty
Friday, March 8, 2013
Lets not talk about who is going down but what teams we want in the premier league with us next year.For me Bolton Cardiff & Hull
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canarykid
Friday, March 8, 2013
I do not give a dam as long as we stay up.
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Swiss Canary
Friday, March 8, 2013
gross.
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Steady On
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Looking at it, we should be OK, but just remember this......our record in the so called 6 pointers in the first half of the season was not good. We are not where we are for beating the teams we SHOULD have beaten, we are there because of against the odds results against ManUtd, Spurs and Arsenal.
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Algarve Canary
Thursday, March 7, 2013
To answer you Steady On, should we (all right Alan) lose on Saturday, my nerves will be sha88ed something rotten. That is the lot of anyone who cares about a football team. Problem is I remember City in freefall twice before once they stopped at the edge and once they went down. I have also seen the performance of the team in must-win away games on the last day of the season ie Fulham and Charlton. I know it's a different team, different manager etc etc but....Anyone want to buy my spare laxatives?
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waclor
Thursday, March 7, 2013
villa,reading and qpr i hope!we should get another 12 points at least if we play positively.
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tonyb
Thursday, March 7, 2013
A nerve transmits impulses from the brain. Which explains why S\O is nerveless. No job available. You herd that all right?
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Mad Brewer
Thursday, March 7, 2013
QPR and Reading are my top two to go down. I think the third spot will probably be filled by Villa (though I would like to see them stay up), however if we beat Soton on Sat I think they could go down instead. Wigan will be safe. They score enough goals to get results.
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Preston Canary
Thursday, March 7, 2013
looking at the fixtures we have the easiest run in on paper - i reckon we will get between 8 and 12 points from the 30 remaining as long as we are positive in our home games and go for wins against the bottom clubs. I forecast QPR, Reading, Wigan for the drop. City to finish with 40-44 points.
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SussexYellow
Thursday, March 7, 2013
QPR, Reading and Wigan for me. Not necessarily the 3 I'd LIKE to see go down but my predictio nevertheless.
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DocOhNo
Thursday, March 7, 2013
The real question is can "the herd" hold their nerve if there is anything other than a 10-0 win for city?
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Steady On
Thursday, March 7, 2013
shefcanary, Newcastle's 3 wins in their last 6 game looks better than the 3 draws and 1 win that both City and QPR have managed. Or have we gone back to two points for a win?
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ScotCan
Thursday, March 7, 2013
PL sacked on the Monday after.
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ScotCan
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Last day of the season ... Wigan v Villa in a nail-biting battle for 17th place and to avoid joining QPR and Reading in the Championship. Half-time 0-0, Wigan overrun Villa in the second-half to win 6-0. Oh, how they laughed!
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ScotCan
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Flawed thinking from Bailey that assumes that teams at the bottom will continue to pick up points at the same rate that they have (not) all season, but at least some of them usually improve towards the end of the season. Last season 17th place was on 23 points, this season 24. At the end of last season safety was 37 points - seems to me that that at least 38 points will be needed for safety.
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ScotCan
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Win against Southampton and we go top half. After all what's happend this season - how ironic would it be that we improve on last season's final positioning of 12th? It might not, but it easily could, and would be extremely intriguing and thought-provoking. All ifs and maybes, but a win Saturday would certainly make that bizarre thought a strangely realistic possibility.
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Lambo is god
Thursday, March 7, 2013
You always need to factor in surprising and unexpected results towards the end of the season. Last season alone, see QPR's victory at home to Liverpool and Wigan's double back to back victories against Man Utd and Arsenal - all during April. When teams are truly desparate towards the end of the season, watch points roll in against mid-table teams when previously you would not have expected this to happen. Just because the relegation line is currently 24 points after 28 games, doesn't mean to say this ration will remain similar after 38 games. I fully expect the cut-off to still be around 38-39 points, certainly if we want to avoid a nervous afternoon at the Etihad with our ears to radio's (or more to the point, fingers to phones these days!). We should still be ok, but work to be done yet, before we can put this season to bed.
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Lambo is god
Thursday, March 7, 2013
It's interesting to note from the graphic, that recent form summarised on the graphic shows no one of the other 8 has better form over recent 6 games than us, QPR have a similar record. So maintain current form (which people have said is dire) and we will make it, improve and top half beckons.
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shefcanary
Thursday, March 7, 2013
A quick look above means that we have eight games where we would hope to get something. Of course that might not happen, but its more than anyother team listed above. If we dont make it I will buy everyone here a coffee in the Forum ;-)
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sharky
Thursday, March 7, 2013
The spelling aberrations that frequent the Archant articles are there to entertain the reader and also as a check to ensure you pay attention and read the piece correctly with nothing missed out. Maybe it could be a deliberate pun on a previous Prancing Donkey players name as Brew implies.
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blackdog2
Thursday, March 7, 2013
With Michael Bailey`s acute sense of humour, that "dyer" bit was probably deliberate. Then, MB would say that.....
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Mad Brewer
Thursday, March 7, 2013
If we beat Southampton on Saturday that will be a huge huge win for us and we will be nearly home!
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Henry
Thursday, March 7, 2013
"dyer situation"... I see what you did there...
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Steady On
Thursday, March 7, 2013